Quantitative History of China: Historical Roots of Recent Success and Future Development

China’s recent economic success and its development trajectory are among the most discussed stories of our time. To understand what drove these achievements, scholars have looked back at China’s historical roots. Before the computer age, however, no scholar could handle hundreds of thousands, let alone millions, of historical documents/cases/observations. As a result, historians traditionally had to rely on selective case studies to construct qualitative narratives that are often important and insightful but difficult for systematic testing. Now, with numerous archives being digitised in China and beyond, scholars have no choice but to work with historical ‘big data’, and the only feasible way to conduct big data-based historical inquiries is with quantitative methods. Uniquely among nations, China has a wealth of historical and archaeological archives covering almost all aspects of society, from politics to business, law and regulation, crime and unrest, family and lineage, culture and customs, religion and social organisation and science. Many of these records have been recently digitised, offering quantitative historians an unprecedented opportunity to re-examine various aspects of China’s past, which is extremely important to assess its future and guide policymaking in Hong Kong.We propose to establish a new Centre for Quantitative History (CQH) at the University of Hong Kong (HKU) to serve as a focal institution for coordinating and conducting research on the ‘Quantitative History of China’. The CQH will make Hong Kong a global leader in quantitative history research for three reasons. First, Hong Kong is part of China and has a linguistic/cultural/human resources advantage. Second, Hong Kong enjoys more academic freedom than mainland universities. Third, and of equal importance, is that our research team, including the PC, Co-PIs and their collaborators, has published widely on the quantitative history of China and constructed key historical databases in recent years. In 2013, the PC, together with the Co-PIs, started an annual 9-day summer school and international symposium for quantitative history to promote the proposed research approach to approximately 200 young and middle-aged scholars from more than 40 universities. These on-going efforts have yielded positive results in greater China and had a significant influence in Hong Kong. If supported, this project will significantly advance knowledge on the mainland’s and Hong Kong’s historical development, enhance teaching and learning, aid policymaking and improve business practices.